In this year’s Think Piece, we revisit the fundamentals of long-term valuation in an age of information overload and accelerating technological change. We examine how discount rates, equity risk premiums, and long-dated cash flows interact to shape company valuations, and why investors should spend less time reacting to market noise and more time assessing durability. As innovation reshapes entire sectors, companies with adaptability and strong competitive positions will warrant lower risk premiums—while others may fade.

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Dubai’s openness to expatriates has been central to its transformation. In this commentary, we explore how expatriate communities drive economic complexity, attract foreign investment, strengthen social networks, and enhance the city’s cultural appeal. Drawing on personal experience, we illustrate how these communities have shaped not only Dubai’s economy, but its identity—and why this may be one of its greatest long-term advantages.

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Qatar is on the cusp of generating immense new wealth from LNG production, prompting a key question: how much should be invested at home versus abroad? In this commentary, we explore Qatar’s economic options, the limits of domestic capital deployment, and the non-financial considerations that may shape its decisions. As Qatar seeks to balance growth, employment, and national identity, we consider what meaningful domestic investment might look like in a country with few urgent economic pressures.

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While much of the world grapples with falling birth rates, Dubai continues to grow. In this commentary, we explore why Dubai’s unique reliance on expatriates positions it for strong population growth in the decades ahead. We examine global fertility trends, the drivers behind Dubai’s demographic strategy, and the roles that India and China may play in shaping the city’s future. If Dubai’s population growth outpaces government forecasts, the investment implications could be significant.

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In this year-end commentary, we turn our gaze to how the Gulf equity markets have evolved since our last assessment in 2019. Much has changed, but the GCC is still underrepresented in key emerging market indices. We examine four key factors to support this argument - listings, foreign ownership limits, free floats, and index changes in country composition - and explain why we think the GCC’s underrepresentation will diminish.

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The most important determinant of a bank’s value is its long-term outlook for cost of funding. In this commentary, we evaluate demand-deposit growth in Saudi and the UAE and predict its future trajectory. For comparison, we look at historical data from the US and more recent data from other advanced non-Gulf countries.

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Dubai has experienced significant changes over the past 15 years. In this commentary, we share our experiences and those of friends to add to the picture of Dubai’s progress captured in the financial data.

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Investing in government-related entities (GREs) is unavoidable in the Gulf. However, they often trade at a lower value compared to non-GREs. In this commentary, we explore reasons for this.

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